Data as of 27 October 2026. Raw price: TCGplayer market price (near-mint) from our daily snapshot, plus PriceCharting's ungraded sold average for comparison. Graded prices: PriceCharting sold listings for this card, accessed 27 October 2026. Fees: PSA and CGC published fee schedules. This is a worked example of a method, not investment advice. Check today's sold prices before you decide.
The short answer
A narrow yes for a clean copy: grading only pays if a 10 is a real possibility. Raw Greninja ex #214 is $255.69 on TCGplayer (27 October 2026), down 17.7% from $310.76 a week earlier, the biggest one-week drop of the 163 cards worth $20+ we track across 10 modern sets. Raw eBay sales did not fall with it: they averaged about $249.00 (PriceCharting), with a median near $230 before 19 October and $228 after. PSA 10s held too: median $650 since 19 October (9 sales) against $634 before (12 sales). A PSA 9 sells for about $260. At PSA Standard ($59.99) and a 30% chance of a 10, grading averages about +$31 against a $256 raw sale and +$37 against a $249 one. Break-even is about a 21% chance of a 10 at the TCGplayer price and 19% at the PriceCharting average.
So the week's drop was the TCGplayer market price moving toward what the card was already selling for, not a fall in what slabs sell for. Greninja ex is still the most valuable card in Twilight Masquerade; next is Perrin #220 at $145.17.
Weekly price changes for 10 modern sets: Pokémon card price movers.
Which PSA tier applies
- PSA Standard ($59.99, cap $1,000). Raw ($255.69), a PSA 9 (~$260) and a PSA 10 (~$650; the highest of the 21 sales from 13 October to 26 October was $700.00) all sit under $1,000, so no upcharge applies.
- PSA's cheaper Value tiers have been paused since 2 June 2026. PSA ties their return to its backlog falling to about 5 million cards; it reported 8.2 million on 6 October and has given no date. Standard takes about 90 to 100 business days, so we charge 135 calendar days of waiting.
The inputs
| Input | Value used | Where it comes from |
|---|---|---|
| Raw price, version A | $255.69 | TCGplayer market, 27 October 2026 ($355.79 on 13 Sep; $337.24 on 1 Oct; $317.44 on 13 Oct; $310.76 on 20 Oct) |
| Raw price, version B | $249.00 | PriceCharting ungraded sold average (25 raw sales 11 October to 25 October: $194.50 to $315.99, median $229.99) |
| Sold price if PSA 10 | $650.00 | Median of the 9 PriceCharting PSA 10 sales since 19 October ($600.00 to $660.00); PriceCharting's average is $633.01 |
| Sold price if PSA 9 | $260.26 | Median of 23 PriceCharting PSA 9 sales 29 September to 27 October: $233.50 to $366.81 (a BGS 9 excluded) |
| Sold price if 8 or lower | $234.50 | Blend of grade 8 (about $251) and grade 7 (about $201) |
| Chance of a 10 / 9 / 8 or lower | 30% / 50% / 20% | Assumption for a copy that looks clean under a loupe (same as our other card articles); other odds below |
| Selling platform | eBay, 13.25% + $0.40 | eBay trading-card fee schedule |
| Grading cost | $59.99 + $6 shipping | PSA Standard |
| Time value of money | 5% a year, 135 days | PSA Standard turnaround |
The math
- Net if it grades 10: 650.00 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 59.99 − 6 = $497.49
- Net if it grades 9: 260.26 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 59.99 − 6 = $159.39
- Net if 8 or lower: 234.50 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 59.99 − 6 = $137.04
- Expected net if graded: 0.30 × 497.49 + 0.50 × 159.39 + 0.20 × 137.04 = $256.35
Version A, raw = $255.69: sell raw today 255.69 × 0.8675 − 0.40 = $221.41; cost of waiting $4.09; expected gain 256.35 − 221.41 − 4.09 = +$31.
Version B, raw = $249.00: sell raw today $215.61; cost of waiting $3.99; expected gain +$37.
How much depends on your odds of a 10
| Your chance of a PSA 10 | Raw = $255.69 | Raw = $249.00 |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | −$38 | −$32 |
| 20% | −$4 | +$2 |
| 30% | +$31 | +$37 |
| 40% | +$65 | +$71 |
| 50% | +$100 | +$106 |
| 60% | +$134 | +$140 |
The 9 / 8-or-lower split is kept at 5 : 2 in every row. Break-even is about 21% (version A) and 19% (version B). That is inside the 25 to 35% PSA 10 rate usually quoted for modern Special Illustration Rares, but not by much: a copy with soft corners or off-centre borders should stay raw.
The catch: a PSA 9 loses money
A PSA 9 sells for about $260 (median of recent sales), about what raw sells for, so after the fee, shipping and selling costs a 9 nets about $66 less than selling raw at $256. All of the expected gain comes from the 10, which nets about +$272 over a raw sale. At 30% odds, grading keeps paying until PSA 10s fall to about $531; today's median is $650. A slab you send now comes back in about four months, at whatever the price is then.
If PSA's Value Bulk tier returns at its pre-pause $24.99, break-even at the TCGplayer price drops to about 11% (Value tiers have their own value caps, so check them first).
What about CGC or TAG?
CGC Economy is only $20, but CGC 10s for this card sold for $290.00 to $590.00 since August (only 6 sales, 4 of them under $340), so a CGC 10 is a much weaker bet than a PSA 10 here. TAG 10s sold for $695.00 to $1,000.00 since August (3 sales), above PSA 10s, but 3 sales are too few to plan on and we have not modelled TAG's fees; use the calculator below if you are weighing it.
Do this yourself in two minutes
Our Grading ROI Calculator takes the same inputs, including your own raw price, odds and fee, and puts PSA, CGC, TAG and Beckett side by side. For every card in the set, see the Twilight Masquerade Set Value Sheet or the free Twilight Masquerade card values list. The same math for other chase cards: Umbreon ex, Sylveon ex, Espeon ex, Leafeon ex, Latias ex, Pikachu ex, Milotic ex, Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex, Charizard ex (Paldean Fates), Mew ex, Charizard ex (151), Giratina VSTAR GG69, Rayquaza VMAX and Umbreon VMAX.
FAQ
How much is Greninja ex #214 from Twilight Masquerade worth raw?
About $255.69 near-mint on TCGplayer on 27 October 2026 ($310.76 on 20 October, $355.79 on 13 September). Recent raw eBay sales: median $229.99, PriceCharting average $249.00.
Why did Greninja ex drop so much this week?
The TCGplayer market price fell from $310.76 to $255.69, but raw eBay sales had a median of about $230 from 11 October to 25 October, so the market price moved toward what copies were already selling for. PSA 10 sales did not fall.
How much is a PSA 10 Greninja ex #214?
About $650 (median of 9 sales since 19 October; PriceCharting, 27 October 2026), about 2.5 times the TCGplayer raw price.
Is a PSA 9 Greninja ex worth more than raw?
Barely: recent PSA 9 sales have a median of about $260, so after fees a 9 loses money against selling raw.
What chance of a PSA 10 do I need?
About 21% at the TCGplayer raw price, about 19% at PriceCharting's raw average.
GradeWorthy is not affiliated with The Pokémon Company, Nintendo, PSA, CGC, TAG, Beckett, eBay, PriceCharting or TCGplayer. Prices and fees change; verify before you submit.