Data as of 15 October 2026. Raw price: TCGplayer market price (near-mint) from our daily snapshot, plus PriceCharting's ungraded sold average for comparison. Graded prices: PriceCharting sold listings for this card, accessed 15 October 2026. Fees: PSA's current service levels as published by pregradecards.com (updated 2 October 2026). This is a worked example of a method, not investment advice. Check today's sold prices before you decide.
The short answer
Whether Rayquaza VMAX #218 is worth grading depends on what your raw copy is really worth, more than on the PSA 10 price. A PSA 10 sells for about $2,075 and a PSA 9 for about $1,164. But the two common raw prices disagree by 20%: TCGplayer's market price is $1,278.52, while PriceCharting's ungraded sold average is $1,067.83.
- At the TCGplayer raw price, a PSA 9 sells for less than raw. At a 30% chance of a 10, grading comes out about −$123 versus selling raw, and you need about a 44% chance of a 10 to break even.
- At the PriceCharting raw price, a PSA 9 sells for a little more than raw ($1,164 vs $1,068), though not by enough to cover the fees. At 30% odds grading comes out about +$60, and break-even drops to about 23%.
A clean, near-mint copy is the one that compares with TCGplayer's higher figure, and that is exactly where the math is tightest.
Weekly price changes for 10 modern sets: Pokémon card price movers.
Which PSA tier applies
PSA prices grading by the card's value after grading, and moves a card up a tier (billing the difference) when the graded value is above the tier's cap. PSA's four Value tiers have been paused since 2 June 2026, and for Rayquaza VMAX the open cheaper tiers do not fit anyway:
- PSA Standard ($59.99, cap $1,000) and Priority ($79.99, cap $1,500) are too low. Even a raw copy at the TCGplayer price is worth more than Standard's cap, and a PSA 10 at about $2,075 is above Priority's.
- Express ($199, cap $2,500, stated 20 to 30 business days) covers a typical PSA 10. The six most recent PSA 10 sales (12 to 14 October) ran $1,963 to $2,300, all under $2,500. That is the tier we use below.
The inputs
| Input | Value used | Where it comes from |
|---|---|---|
| Raw price, version A | $1,278.52 | TCGplayer market, 15 October 2026 (+0.8% vs $1,268.52 on 13 Oct; +1.8% vs $1,255.33 on 13 Sep) |
| Raw price, version B | $1,067.83 | PriceCharting ungraded sold average, accessed 15 October 2026 (recent raw sales 11 to 14 October: $910 to $1,275) |
| Sold price if PSA 10 | $2,075.00 | PriceCharting PSA 10 average; six sales 12 to 14 October: $1,963 to $2,300 |
| Sold price if PSA 9 | $1,164.00 | PriceCharting PSA 9 average; most sales 11 to 14 October were $910 to $1,099, below the average |
| Sold price if 8 or lower | $867.25 | Average of grade 8 ($874.50) and grade 7 ($860.00); grade 8 sales are sparse (three between 5 August and 4 September) |
| Chance of a 10 / 9 / 8 or lower | 30% / 50% / 20% | Assumption for a copy that looks clean under a loupe (same as our other card articles). The table below shows other odds |
| Selling platform | eBay, 13.25% + $0.40 | eBay trading-card fee schedule |
| Grading cost | $199 + $6 shipping and insurance | PSA Express |
| Time value of money | 5% a year, 30 days | A simplification: Express's stated 20 to 30 business days plus shipping is closer to 6 to 8 weeks. At 60 days the cost of waiting is about $9 instead of $4.56, which does not change the answer |
The math, PSA Express
The graded side is the same whichever raw price you use:
- Net if it grades 10: 2,075.00 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 199 − 6 = $1,594.66
- Net if it grades 9: 1,164.00 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 199 − 6 = $804.37
- Net if 8 or lower: 867.25 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 199 − 6 = $546.94
- Expected net if graded: 0.30 × 1,594.66 + 0.50 × 804.37 + 0.20 × 546.94 = $989.97
Version A, raw = $1,278.52 (TCGplayer market):
- Net if you sell raw today: 1,278.52 × 0.8675 − 0.40 = $1,108.72
- Cost of waiting 30 days: $4.56
- Expected gain versus selling raw: 989.97 − 1,108.72 − 4.56 = −$123
Version B, raw = $1,067.83 (PriceCharting ungraded):
- Net if you sell raw today: 1,067.83 × 0.8675 − 0.40 = $925.94
- Cost of waiting 30 days: $3.81
- Expected gain versus selling raw: 989.97 − 925.94 − 3.81 = +$60
How much depends on your odds of a 10
| Your chance of a PSA 10 | Raw = $1,278.52 | Raw = $1,067.83 |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | −$296 | −$113 |
| 20% | −$210 | −$26 |
| 30% | −$123 | +$60 |
| 40% | −$37 | +$147 |
| 50% | +$49 | +$233 |
The 9 / 8-or-lower split is kept at 5 : 2 in every row. Break-even is about 44% at the TCGplayer raw price and about 23% at the PriceCharting raw price. If it comes back a 10 you are about $481 ahead (version A) or $665 ahead (version B). If it does not, you are on average about $382 behind (A) or $199 behind (B).
Why the two raw prices differ so much
TCGplayer's market price is built from recent sales of copies listed as near-mint. PriceCharting's ungraded average blends raw sales from several marketplaces, and many raw copies of a card this valuable change hands with visible whitening, print lines or off-centre borders, which pulls the average down. Recent raw sales show the spread: $910 to $1,275 between 11 and 14 October.
So decide which raw price matches your copy before you run the math. If your card is clean enough to sell at the near-mint market price, use version A: grading only pays if you are fairly confident of a 10, and you would be taking a loss on a 9. If it would really sell nearer $1,068 raw, version B applies and the bar is much lower.
What would change the answer
- The PSA 10 price. At 30% odds, a PSA 10 needs to sell for about $2,549 for version A to break even, or about $1,844 for version B. Recent PSA 10 sales ran $1,963 to $2,300, and $2,549 would be just above Express's $2,500 cap, so PSA would move that card up to Super Express ($349) and the bar would rise again.
- The raw price trend. Rayquaza VMAX was $1,255.33 on 13 September and $1,278.52 on 15 October 2026 (+1.8%), one of only 11 cards worth $20+ that were higher on 13 October than on 13 September. Evolving Skies held up best of the 10 sets we track over that month: its 32 cards worth $20+ fell 2.7%, against −7.7% for all 150 such cards across the 10 sets.
- Your risk tolerance. In version A you are about $382 worse off seven times out of ten (at our assumed odds). That is a lot to risk, and at the near-mint raw price the average result is −$123 anyway.
Do this yourself in two minutes
Our Grading ROI Calculator takes the same inputs, including your own raw price, and puts PSA, CGC, TAG and Beckett side by side. For every card in the set, see the Evolving Skies Set Value Sheet or the free Evolving Skies top 25 list. The same math for other chase cards: Umbreon VMAX (Evolving Skies #215), Umbreon ex (Prismatic Evolutions), Mew ex (Paldean Fates), Charizard ex (Paldean Fates), Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex (Destined Rivals), Pikachu ex (Surging Sparks), Charizard ex (151) and Latias ex (Surging Sparks).
Newer worked examples (October 2026): Milotic ex (Surging Sparks), Sylveon ex (Prismatic Evolutions), Mewtwo VSTAR GG44 (Crown Zenith) and Giratina VSTAR GG69 (Crown Zenith).
FAQ
How much is Rayquaza VMAX #218 from Evolving Skies worth raw?
About $1,278.52 near-mint on TCGplayer on 15 October 2026. PriceCharting's ungraded sold average is lower, about $1,068, because it includes copies in worse condition.
How much is a PSA 10 Rayquaza VMAX #218?
About $2,075 on average (PriceCharting, 15 October 2026); six sales from 12 to 14 October ran $1,963 to $2,300.
Which PSA tier should I use for Rayquaza VMAX #218?
Express ($199, up to $2,500). Standard and Priority are capped too low for a card worth over $1,000 raw, and the Value tiers are paused.
Is a PSA 9 Rayquaza VMAX worth more than raw?
Only against the lower raw price. PSA 9s average about $1,164: above PriceCharting's $1,068 ungraded average, below TCGplayer's $1,279 near-mint market price.
What chance of a PSA 10 do I need for grading to pay?
About 44% if your copy would sell raw at the near-mint market price, about 23% if it would sell nearer $1,068.
GradeWorthy is not affiliated with The Pokémon Company, Nintendo, PSA, CGC, TAG, Beckett, eBay, PriceCharting or TCGplayer. Prices and fees change; verify before you submit.