Data as of 6 October 2026. Raw price: TCGplayer market price (near-mint) from our daily snapshot, plus PriceCharting's ungraded sold average for comparison. Graded prices: PriceCharting sold listings for this card, accessed 6 October 2026. Fees: PSA's current service levels as published by pregradecards.com (updated 2 October 2026) and allvintagecards.com. This is a worked example of a method, not investment advice. Check today's sold prices before you decide.
The short answer
It depends on what your raw copy is really worth, more than on the PSA 10 price. A PSA 10 Umbreon VMAX #215 sells for about $3,850 and a PSA 9 for about $2,120. But the two common raw prices disagree by 21%: TCGplayer's market price is $2,285.50, while PriceCharting's ungraded sold average is $1,806.61.
- At the TCGplayer raw price, a PSA 9 sells for less than raw. At a 30% chance of a 10, grading comes out about −$123 versus selling raw, and you need about a 38% chance of a 10 to break even.
- At the PriceCharting raw price, even a 9 is worth more than raw. At 30% odds grading comes out about +$294, and break-even drops to about 12%.
A truly clean, near-mint copy is the one that compares with TCGplayer's higher figure, and that is exactly the case where the math is tightest.
Weekly price changes for 10 modern sets: Pokémon card price movers.
Which PSA tier applies
PSA prices grading by the card's value after grading, and moves a card up a tier (billing the difference) when the graded value is above the tier's cap. For Umbreon VMAX that rules out the cheap tiers:
- PSA Standard ($59.99, cap $1,000), Priority ($79.99, cap $1,500) and Express ($199, cap $2,500) are all too low. Even a raw copy is worth more than Standard's and Priority's caps, and a PSA 10 at about $3,850 is above Express's.
- Super Express ($349, cap $5,000, about 10 to 15 business days) covers a typical PSA 10. The highest recent PSA 10 sale was $4,300 on 1 October, still under $5,000. That is the tier we use below.
The inputs
| Input | Value used | Where it comes from |
|---|---|---|
| Raw price, version A | $2,285.50 | TCGplayer market, 6 October 2026 (+3.2% vs $2,214.79 on 29 Sep; −3.5% vs $2,368.34 on 13 Sep) |
| Raw price, version B | $1,806.61 | PriceCharting ungraded sold average, accessed 6 October 2026 |
| Sold price if PSA 10 | $3,850.00 | PriceCharting PSA 10 average; eight sales 1 to 4 October: $3,800 to $4,300, four of them at $3,849.99 to $3,850 |
| Sold price if PSA 9 | $2,119.61 | PriceCharting PSA 9 average; sales 23 to 29 September: $2,025 to $2,699 |
| Sold price if 8 or lower | $1,738.85 | Average of grade 8 ($1,800.00) and grade 7 ($1,677.70) |
| Chance of a 10 / 9 / 8 or lower | 30% / 50% / 20% | Assumption for a copy that looks clean under a loupe (same as our other card articles). The tables below show other odds |
| Selling platform | eBay, 13.25% + $0.40 | eBay trading-card fee schedule |
| Grading cost | $349 + $6 shipping and insurance | PSA Super Express |
| Time value of money | 5% a year, 30 days | Super Express about 10 to 15 business days plus shipping both ways |
The math, PSA Super Express
The graded side is the same whichever raw price you use:
- Net if it grades 10: 3,850 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 349 − 6 = $2,984.47
- Net if it grades 9: 2,119.61 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 349 − 6 = $1,483.36
- Net if 8 or lower: 1,738.85 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 349 − 6 = $1,153.05
- Expected net if graded: 0.30 × 2,984.47 + 0.50 × 1,483.36 + 0.20 × 1,153.05 = $1,867.63
Version A, raw = $2,285.50 (TCGplayer market):
- Net if you sell raw today: 2,285.50 × 0.8675 − 0.40 = $1,982.27
- Cost of waiting 30 days: $8.15
- Expected gain versus selling raw: 1,867.63 − 1,982.27 − 8.15 = −$123
Version B, raw = $1,806.61 (PriceCharting ungraded):
- Net if you sell raw today: 1,806.61 × 0.8675 − 0.40 = $1,566.83
- Cost of waiting 30 days: $6.44
- Expected gain versus selling raw: 1,867.63 − 1,566.83 − 6.44 = +$294
How much depends on your odds of a 10
| Your chance of a PSA 10 | Raw = $2,285.50 | Raw = $1,806.61 |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | −$442 | −$25 |
| 20% | −$282 | +$135 |
| 30% | −$123 | +$294 |
| 40% | +$37 | +$454 |
| 50% | +$196 | +$613 |
The 9 / 8-or-lower split is kept at 5 : 2 in every row. Break-even is about 38% at the TCGplayer raw price and about 12% at the PriceCharting raw price. If it comes back a 10 you are about $994 ahead (version A) or $1,411 ahead (version B). If it does not, you are on average about $601 behind (A) or $184 behind (B).
Why the two raw prices differ so much
TCGplayer's market price is built from recent sales of copies listed as near-mint. PriceCharting's ungraded average blends raw sales from several marketplaces, and a lot of raw copies of a card this valuable change hands with visible whitening, print lines or off-centre borders, which pulls the average down. That is also why the grade 8 average ($1,800) sits almost exactly on PriceCharting's raw price.
So decide which raw price matches your copy before you run the math. If your card is so clean that it would sell at the near-mint market price, use version A, and grading only pays if you are fairly confident of a 10. If it would really sell nearer $1,800 raw, version B applies and the bar is much lower.
Why not CGC?
PriceCharting shows recent CGC 9.5 sales for this card at $2,076 to $2,499 (June to August 2026) and too few CGC 10 sales to price. A CGC 9.5 at about $2,300 is roughly the TCGplayer raw price, so for this card the PSA 10 premium is the whole case for grading. We did not model CGC.
What would change the answer
- The PSA 10 price. At 30% odds, a PSA 10 needs to sell for about $4,322 for version A to break even, or about $2,719 for version B. Recent PSA 10 sales ran $3,800 to $4,300.
- The raw price trend. Umbreon VMAX was $2,368.34 on 13 September and $2,285.50 on 6 October (−3.5%), but up 3.2% in the last week. Evolving Skies held up best of the 10 sets we track: its 32 cards worth $20+ fell 2.1% in three weeks, against −5.4% for all 150 such cards across the 10 sets.
- Your risk tolerance. In version A you are about $601 worse off seven times out of ten (at our assumed odds). That is a lot to risk even when the average is close to zero.
Do this yourself in two minutes
Our Grading ROI Calculator takes the same inputs, including your own raw price, and puts PSA, CGC, TAG and Beckett side by side. For every card in the set, see the Evolving Skies Set Value Sheet or the free Evolving Skies top 25 list. The same math for other chase cards: Umbreon ex (Prismatic Evolutions), Mew ex (Paldean Fates), Pikachu ex (Surging Sparks), Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex (Destined Rivals), Charizard ex (151), Charizard ex (Paldean Fates), Latias ex (Surging Sparks) and, from the same set, Rayquaza VMAX (Evolving Skies #218).
Newer worked examples (October 2026): Milotic ex (Surging Sparks), Sylveon ex (Prismatic Evolutions), Mewtwo VSTAR GG44 (Crown Zenith) and Giratina VSTAR GG69 (Crown Zenith).
FAQ
How much is Umbreon VMAX #215 from Evolving Skies worth raw?
About $2,285.50 near-mint on TCGplayer on 6 October 2026. PriceCharting's ungraded sold average is lower, about $1,806.61, because it includes copies in worse condition.
How much is a PSA 10 Umbreon VMAX #215?
About $3,850 on average (PriceCharting, 6 October 2026); eight sales from 1 to 4 October ran $3,800 to $4,300.
Which PSA tier should I use for Umbreon VMAX #215?
Super Express ($349, up to $5,000). A PSA 10 is worth more than Express's $2,500 cap, so Express would be upcharged.
Is a PSA 9 Umbreon VMAX worth more than raw?
Only against the lower raw price. PSA 9s average about $2,120: above PriceCharting's $1,807 ungraded average, below TCGplayer's $2,286 near-mint market price.
What chance of a PSA 10 do I need for grading to pay?
About 38% if your copy would sell raw at the near-mint market price, about 12% if it would sell nearer $1,800.
GradeWorthy is not affiliated with The Pokémon Company, Nintendo, PSA, CGC, TAG, Beckett, eBay, PriceCharting or TCGplayer. Prices and fees change; verify before you submit.