Data as of 18 October 2026. Raw price: TCGplayer market price (near-mint) from our daily snapshot, plus PriceCharting's ungraded sold average for comparison. Graded prices: PriceCharting sold listings for this card, accessed 18 October 2026. Fees: PSA and CGC published fee schedules. This is a worked example of a method, not investment advice. Check today's sold prices before you decide.
The short answer
Not at typical odds. Latias ex #239 only pays to grade if you are fairly sure of a PSA 10. Raw it is $177.62 on TCGplayer (18 October 2026). A PSA 10 sells for about $410, but a PSA 9 sells for about $159, less than raw. At a 30% chance of a 10, grading at PSA Standard comes out about −$21 versus selling raw, and you need about a 40% chance of a 10 to break even. Against PriceCharting's lower raw average ($164.50) it is closer, about −$10 with break-even near 34%, but still negative. CGC is worse: a CGC 10 sells for about $195, barely above raw.
Weekly price changes for 10 modern sets: Pokémon card price movers.
Which PSA tier applies
PSA prices grading by the card's value after grading and moves a card up a tier when the graded value is above the tier's cap. Latias ex is simple:
- PSA Standard ($59.99, cap $1,000) covers every outcome. Raw ($177.62), a PSA 9 (~$159) and a PSA 10 (~$410; the last ten sales ran $378.00 to $450.00) are all far below $1,000, so there is no upcharge.
- PSA's cheaper Value tiers have been paused since 2 June 2026, so $59.99 is the lowest PSA price available.
- Standard is slow (about 95 business days), so we charge the cost of waiting about 135 calendar days.
The inputs
| Input | Value used | Where it comes from |
|---|---|---|
| Raw price, version A | $177.62 | TCGplayer market, 18 October 2026 (-6.4% vs $189.67 on 13 Sep) |
| Raw price, version B | $164.50 | PriceCharting ungraded sold average (recent raw sales 14 to 17 October: $145.88 to $180.31) |
| Sold price if PSA 10 | $410.14 | PriceCharting PSA 10 average; ten sales 11 to 15 October: $378.00 to $450.00 |
| Sold price if PSA 9 | $158.75 | PriceCharting PSA 9 average; nine PSA 9 sales 8 to 16 October: $133.50 to $175.00 |
| Sold price if 8 or lower | $149.51 | Blend of grade 8 (about $152) and grade 7 (about $145) |
| Chance of a 10 / 9 / 8 or lower | 30% / 50% / 20% | Assumption for a copy that looks clean under a loupe (same as our other card articles). The table below shows other odds |
| Selling platform | eBay, 13.25% + $0.40 | eBay trading-card fee schedule |
| Grading cost | $59.99 + $6.00 shipping and insurance | PSA Standard |
| Time value of money | 5% a year, 135 days | PSA Standard about 95 business days |
The math, PSA Standard
The graded side is the same whichever raw price you use:
- Net if it grades 10: 410.14 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 59.99 − 6 = $289.41
- Net if it grades 9: 158.75 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 59.99 − 6 = $71.33
- Net if 8 or lower: 149.51 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 59.99 − 6 = $63.31
- Expected net if graded: 0.30 × 289.41 + 0.50 × 71.33 + 0.20 × 63.31 = $135.15
Version A, raw = $177.62 (TCGplayer market): net if you sell raw today 177.62 × 0.8675 − 0.40 = $153.69; cost of waiting $2.84; expected gain 135.15 − 153.69 − 2.84 = −$21.
Version B, raw = $164.50 (PriceCharting ungraded): net if you sell raw today 164.50 × 0.8675 − 0.40 = $142.30; cost of waiting $2.63; expected gain 135.15 − 142.30 − 2.63 = −$10.
How much depends on your odds of a 10
| Your chance of a PSA 10 | Raw = $177.62 | Raw = $164.50 |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | −$65 | −$54 |
| 20% | −$43 | −$32 |
| 30% | −$21 | −$10 |
| 40% | +$1 | +$12 |
| 50% | +$23 | +$34 |
The 9 / 8-or-lower split is kept at 5 : 2 in every row. Break-even is about 40% at the TCGplayer raw price and about 34% at the PriceCharting raw price. If it comes back a 10 you are about $133 ahead (version A); if it does not, you are on average about $87 behind.
Why a 9 loses money here
For Latias ex the grading premium sits entirely in the 10. A PSA 10 sells for about 2.3 times the TCGplayer raw price, but PSA 9s ($133.50 to $175.00 in the last week) and even 8s (about $152) sell for less than a raw near-mint copy. Once you add the $59.99 fee, shipping and the 13.25% selling fee, a 9 nets about $82 less than selling the card raw today. Compared with Pikachu ex #238 from the same set, the 10 is worth far fewer dollars over raw (about $233 here), so the fixed costs eat a bigger share of it.
Why not CGC or TAG?
CGC Economy is only $20, but recent CGC 10 sales for this card ran $180.00 to $255.00 (median about $195). A CGC 10 would net about $142.76 after fees and shipping, −$11 versus selling raw at the TCGplayer price, so even a perfect CGC result does not pay. CGC Pristine 10s sold for $499.00 to $600.00, but that label is much rarer than a regular 10. TAG 10s have sold for $386.00 to $457.34 since late August, in line with PSA 10s; we have not modelled TAG's fees here, so use the calculator below if you are weighing TAG.
What would change the answer
- The PSA 10 price. At 30% odds a PSA 10 would need to sell for about $492 (version A) or $448 (version B) for grading to break even. Recent PSA 10 sales: $378.00 to $450.00.
- Your copy. Centering, back edges and surface decide the odds. If you can honestly put a 10 at 40% or better, grading starts to pay; if the centering is worse than about 60/40 or there is any whitening, selling raw comes out ahead.
- The raw price trend. Raw has drifted down: $189.67 on 13 September, $186.00 on 1 October, $177.62 today (-6.4%). A falling raw price makes grading relatively better, but slowly.
Do this yourself in two minutes
Our Grading ROI Calculator takes the same inputs, including your own raw price, and puts PSA, CGC, TAG and Beckett side by side. For every card in the set, see the Surging Sparks Set Value Sheet or the free Surging Sparks top 25 list. The same math for other chase cards: Pikachu ex (Surging Sparks), Rayquaza VMAX (Evolving Skies), Umbreon VMAX (Evolving Skies), Umbreon ex (Prismatic Evolutions), Mew ex (Paldean Fates), Charizard ex (Paldean Fates), Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex (Destined Rivals) and Charizard ex (151).
Newer worked examples (October 2026): Milotic ex (Surging Sparks), Sylveon ex (Prismatic Evolutions), Mewtwo VSTAR GG44 (Crown Zenith) and Giratina VSTAR GG69 (Crown Zenith) · Greninja ex #214 (Twilight Masquerade).
FAQ
How much is Latias ex #239 from Surging Sparks worth raw?
About $177.62 near-mint on TCGplayer on 18 October 2026; PriceCharting's ungraded sold average is $164.50.
How much is a PSA 10 Latias ex #239?
About $410 on average (PriceCharting, 18 October 2026); ten sales from 11 to 15 October ran $378.00 to $450.00.
Is a PSA 9 Latias ex worth more than raw?
No. PSA 9s average about $159, below both raw prices, so a 9 loses money once you pay grading and selling fees.
Which PSA tier should I use for Latias ex #239?
PSA Standard ($59.99, up to $1,000). Every likely outcome is under the cap.
What chance of a PSA 10 do I need for grading to pay?
About 40% if your copy would sell raw at the near-mint market price, about 34% if it would sell nearer $164.
GradeWorthy is not affiliated with The Pokémon Company, Nintendo, PSA, CGC, TAG, Beckett, eBay, PriceCharting or TCGplayer. Prices and fees change; verify before you submit.