Data as of 5 October 2026. Raw price: TCGplayer market price (near-mint) from our daily snapshot. Graded prices: PriceCharting sold listings for this card, accessed 5 October 2026. Fees: PSA and CGC published fee schedules. This is a worked example of a method, not investment advice. Check today's sold prices before you decide.
The short answer
For a clean copy, only just, at PSA, and only because of the 10. Raw Pikachu ex #238 is $286.31 (5 October 2026). A PSA 10 sells for about $838, but a PSA 9 sells for about $252, which is less than raw. At a 30% chance of a 10, grading at PSA Standard comes out about +$47 ahead of selling raw. If it does not come back a 10, you end up about $102 behind. The break-even chance of a 10 is about 21%, a higher bar than for the pricier chase cards in this series, because the PSA 10 premium is smaller in dollars. CGC is a different story: a CGC 10 sells for only about $340, so CGC grading barely beats selling raw even when it goes perfectly.
Weekly price changes for 10 modern sets: Pokémon card price movers.
Which PSA tier applies
PSA prices grading by the card's value after grading and moves a card up a tier (billing the difference) when the graded value is above the tier's cap. Pikachu ex is the easy case in our series:
- PSA Standard ($59.99, cap $1,000) covers every outcome. Raw ($286.31), a PSA 9 (~$252) and even a PSA 10 (~$838) are all under $1,000, so there is no upcharge, unlike Umbreon ex and Mew ex.
- One PSA 10 sold for $1,030.89 on 27 September. If PSA valued your 10 above $1,000 it would move it to Priority ($79.99) and bill the $20 difference, which barely changes the math.
- Standard is slow (about 95 business days), so we charge the cost of waiting about 135 calendar days.
The inputs
| Input | Value used | Where it comes from |
|---|---|---|
| Raw market price | $286.31 | TCGplayer market, 5 October 2026 (-0.4% vs $287.46 on 13 Sep) |
| Sold price if PSA 10 | $837.50 | PriceCharting PSA 10 average; sales 23 to 29 Sep: $799.99, $834.56, $860.08, $875.00 (plus one at $1,030.89) |
| Sold price if PSA 9 | $251.79 | PriceCharting PSA 9 average; late-September PSA 9 sales $222.50 to $291.43 |
| Sold price if 8 or lower | $225.42 | Blend of grade 8 (about $242) and grade 7 (about $193) |
| Chance of a 10 / 9 / 8 or lower | 30% / 50% / 20% | Assumption for a copy that looks clean under a loupe (same as our other card articles). The table below shows other odds |
| Selling platform | eBay, 13.25% + $0.40 | eBay trading-card fee schedule |
| Shipping and insurance | $6.00 per card | Share of an insured submission, as in our set value lists |
| Time value of money | 5% a year, 135 days | PSA Standard about 95 business days |
The math, PSA Standard
- Net if you sell raw today: 286.31 × 0.8675 − 0.40 = $247.97
- Net if it grades 10: 837.50 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − $59.99 − 6 shipping = $660.14
- Net if it grades 9: 251.79 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − $59.99 − 6 = $152.04
- Net if 8 or lower: 225.42 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − $59.99 − 6 = $129.16
- Expected net if graded: 0.30 × 660.14 + 0.50 × 152.04 + 0.20 × 129.16 = $299.89
- Cost of waiting 135 days: 247.97 × 5% × 135/365 = $4.59
- Expected gain versus selling raw: 299.89 − 247.97 − 4.59 = +$47
How much depends on your odds of a 10
| Your chance of a PSA 10 | Expected gain vs selling raw |
|---|---|
| 10% | −$56 |
| 20% | −$4 |
| 30% | +$47 |
| 40% | +$99 |
| 50% | +$150 |
The 9 / 8-or-lower split is kept at 5 : 2 in every row. Break-even is about 21%. Below that, selling raw wins on average.
Why not CGC?
CGC Economy is only $20, but the slab is worth much less. Recent CGC 10 sales for this card ran $315.55 to $405.00 (median about $340). Even if your card comes back a CGC 10, you net about $268.55 after the $20 fee, shipping and selling fees, only +$21 more than selling raw today, and any lower grade loses money. The CGC Pristine 10 label sells for far more (about $930 to $1,000), but it is much rarer than a regular 10. For this card the PSA 10 premium is what makes grading pay.
Read the result carefully
Pikachu ex is a 10-or-nothing card, like Umbreon ex and Mew ex. A PSA 10 sells for about 2.9 times raw, but a PSA 9 sells for less than raw, and after fees a 9 nets about $96 less than just selling the card raw. Seven times out of ten (at our assumed odds) you are about $102 worse off. The positive average comes entirely from the 10.
Check the back edges and corners under a bright light, and the centering, before you count on a 10. If the centering is worse than about 60/40 or there is any whitening, your odds drop well below the break-even.
What would change the answer
- The PSA 10 price. At 30% odds a PSA 10 needs to sell for about $656 for grading to break even. PSA 10s sold for $782 to $924.99 between 14 and 29 September (plus one at $1,030.89). Check sold prices, not asking prices.
- The raw price. Raw has been flat: $287.46 on 13 Sep, $286.31 today, while most modern chase cards fell. Of the 143 cards worth $20+ across the 10 sets we track, 125 were lower on 4 October than on 13 September.
- Your risk tolerance. A 70% chance of losing about $102 is a real risk even when the average is positive.
Do this yourself in two minutes
Our Grading ROI Calculator takes the same inputs and puts PSA, CGC, TAG and Beckett side by side. For every card in the set, see the Surging Sparks Set Value Sheet or the free Surging Sparks top 25 list. The same math for other chase cards: Umbreon ex (Prismatic Evolutions), Mew ex (Paldean Fates), Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex (Destined Rivals), Umbreon VMAX (Evolving Skies), Charizard ex (151), Charizard ex (Paldean Fates), Rayquaza VMAX (Evolving Skies) and, from the same set, Latias ex (Surging Sparks).
Newer worked examples (October 2026): Milotic ex (Surging Sparks), Sylveon ex (Prismatic Evolutions), Mewtwo VSTAR GG44 (Crown Zenith) and Giratina VSTAR GG69 (Crown Zenith).
FAQ
How much is Pikachu ex #238 from Surging Sparks worth raw?
About $286.31 near-mint on TCGplayer on 5 October 2026 ($287.46 on 13 September).
How much is a PSA 10 Pikachu ex #238?
About $838 on average (PriceCharting, 5 October 2026); sales from 23 to 29 September were $799.99 to $875.00, plus one at $1,030.89.
Which PSA tier should I use for Pikachu ex #238?
PSA Standard ($59.99, up to $1,000). Raw, a PSA 9 and a typical PSA 10 are all under the cap, so there is no upcharge.
Is a PSA 9 Pikachu ex worth more than raw?
No. PSA 9s average about $252, below the raw price, so a 9 loses money once you pay grading and selling fees.
Is it worth grading Pikachu ex #238 at CGC?
Usually not. A CGC 10 sells for about $340, so even a perfect result nets only +$21 more than selling raw.
GradeWorthy is not affiliated with The Pokémon Company, Nintendo, PSA, CGC, TAG, Beckett, eBay or TCGplayer. Prices and fees change; verify before you submit.