Data as of October 3, 2026. Raw prices: TCGplayer market price from our daily snapshot. Graded prices: PriceCharting sold-price averages and recent sales, accessed October 3, 2026. Grading fees: PSA's current service lineup. A worked example of a method, not investment advice.
The short answer: at $400.21 raw and about $916.63 for a PSA 10, grading Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex #231 at PSA Standard pays on average only if your copy has better than about a 15% chance of a 10. A PSA 9 sells for about raw, so the decision is about the 10.
Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex #231, the Special Illustration Rare, is the most valuable card in Destined Rivals. It fell from $451.76 raw on September 13 to $387.84 on September 29 (-14% in 16 days), then recovered to $400.21 by October 3, 2026 (+3.2% in four days). If you pulled one, you're probably deciding whether to sell it raw now or grade it. The answer mostly depends on your copy's odds of a PSA 10. Everything else is arithmetic, and it's all below so you can redo it with your own numbers.
The three prices that matter
| Price | Source | |
|---|---|---|
| Raw (ungraded) | $400.21 | TCGplayer market price, our snapshot, October 3, 2026 |
| PSA 9 | ~$410.00 | PriceCharting average sold price; recent sales $399.78 (October 1) and $355 (September 27) |
| PSA 10 | ~$916.63 | PriceCharting average (down from $978.60 on September 29); latest sales $925 and $949.99 (October 1) |
A PSA 10 sells for about 2.3× raw. That covers PSA's cheapest open tier, but the premium has narrowed this week: the 10 slipped about 6% while raw went up 3%. Prismatic Evolutions Umbreon ex has a 10 at about 4× raw (worked here).
A PSA 9 sells for about raw ($410.00 vs $400.21). A 9 gets you back roughly what you'd have got selling raw, minus the fee. PriceCharting's own ungraded average is $409.15, close to TCGplayer's.
Which PSA tier applies?
PSA's cheapest open tiers are Standard ($59.99, cards up to $1,000), Priority ($79.99, up to $1,500), Express ($199, up to $2,500) and Premier ($599, up to $10,000). The Value tiers ($24.99 to $64.99) have been paused since June 2026, and PSA hasn't committed to a date for bringing them back.
PSA prices a submission by the card's value after grading. The PSA 10 average of $916.63 is $83 under Standard's $1,000 cap, and the latest 10s sold for $925 to $950. So Standard covers this card even if it comes back a 10. If PSA ever values your 10 above $1,000, it moves the card to Priority and charges the $20 difference.
Cost per card: $59.99 + about $6 shipping and insurance = ~$66.
The break-even math
We compare two choices: sell raw today, or grade and then sell. Selling fees are 13.25% (eBay-style) either way.
- If it comes back a 10: 0.8675 × ($916.63 − $400.21) − $66 ≈ +$382 more than selling raw.
- If it comes back anything else: we assume it sells for about raw (a 9 does), so you're out the ~$66 you spent on grading.
- Break-even chance of a 10: $66 ÷ $448 ≈ 15% (it was 13% on September 29).
| Your chance of a 10 | Average result vs selling raw |
|---|---|
| 10% | −$21 |
| 20% | +$24 |
| 30% | +$68 |
| 40% | +$113 |
| 50% | +$158 |
The break-even moves only a little with the inputs. If a PSA 10 sells for $900, it's about 15%. Using PriceCharting's raw price ($409.15) instead of TCGplayer's, it's about 15%. If a non-10 sells at the PSA 9 average rather than raw, the 30% row becomes about +$74.
How it compares with the rest of Destined Rivals
Only two cards in the set clear the $150 raw screen we use for PSA Standard (2.5× the fee). These are the set's top cards, all of them down since September 13:
| Card | Raw, Oct 3 | Change since Sept 13 | Clears $150 PSA Standard screen? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex #231 | $400.21 | -11% | Yes |
| Cynthia's Garchomp ex #232 | $203.85 | -12% | Yes (at 30% odds of a 10, a PSA 10 must sell for about $457 to beat selling raw) |
| Ethan's Ho-Oh ex #230 | $146.43 | -4% | Just under |
| Team Rocket's Moltres ex #229 | $84.79 | -10% | No (CGC Economy territory) |
| Team Rocket's Nidoking ex #233 | $85.59 | -13% | No (CGC Economy territory) |
| Team Rocket's Crobat ex #234 | $54.80 | -11% | No |
| Misty's Psyduck #193 | $51.30 | -17% | No |
Across the whole set, 19 of the 19 cards worth $20+ on September 13 are lower now, down 12.0% together. A full set from the cheapest printings costs $1,559.37, down from $1,768.55. We don't know where it goes next, and nobody does.
What this means in practice
- 15% is a low bar, but it applies to your copy. Set-wide averages don't tell you much about the card in your hand. An SIR with visibly off-center borders, a whitened back edge or print lines in the holo can have much lower odds of a 10. A centered copy that went straight from the pack into a sleeve can have much higher odds. Check centering first. PSA's commonly cited tolerance for a 10 is about 55/45 on the front and 75/25 on the back.
- The real downside is a PSA 8 or lower. Our math assumes a non-10 sells for about raw. That holds for a 9, but an 8 of a modern SIR usually sells below raw. A copy with a visible flaw can lose more than $66.
- Turnaround is a price risk too. PSA Standard quotes 90 to 100 business days, so a slab submitted now comes back around February 2027. This card moved 14% in two weeks in September. The math uses today's prices for both raw and graded, and nobody knows February's prices.
- CGC is an option, but we don't have CGC 10 comps here. CGC Economy is $20 (cards up to $1,000) and Bulk $17 (25-card minimum, up to $500), so its break-even is much lower. A CGC 10 also sells for less, and we haven't checked its price for this card, so we don't quote a number.
The same math for other chase cards (October 2026): Umbreon ex (Prismatic Evolutions #161) · Mew ex (Paldean Fates #232) · Charizard ex (151 #199) · Pikachu ex (Surging Sparks #238) · Umbreon VMAX (Evolving Skies #215) · Charizard ex (Paldean Fates #234) · Rayquaza VMAX (Evolving Skies #218) · Latias ex (Surging Sparks #239).
Newer worked examples (October 2026): Milotic ex (Surging Sparks), Sylveon ex (Prismatic Evolutions), Mewtwo VSTAR GG44 (Crown Zenith) and Giratina VSTAR GG69 (Crown Zenith).
Methodology
- Raw price: TCGplayer market price (highest-priced printing) from our daily snapshot of 10 modern sets, merging pokemontcg.io and PokéWallet by whichever updated most recently. Data as of October 3, 2026.
- Graded prices: PriceCharting sold-price averages and individual recent sales, accessed October 3, 2026. Graded prices are not in our own database.
- Fees: PSA Standard $59.99 (cap $1,000), Priority $79.99 (cap $1,500). CGC Economy $20 (cap $1,000), Bulk $17 (cap $500) per CGC's published fee page. Shipping and insurance $6 per card. Selling fee 13.25%. We ignore taxes, membership fees and any extra fees.
- Formula: gain from a 10 = 0.8675 × (PSA 10 − raw). Break-even chance = cost ÷ that gain. The average result at chance p = p × gain − cost.
Run your own card
The same arithmetic works for any card. Put in the raw price, the PSA 10 and 9 comps and your honest odds of a 10. The Grading ROI Calculator (Excel + Google Sheets, $19) does it for PSA, CGC, TAG and Beckett tiers side by side, including tier caps. For the quick version, the free Grade or Hold checklist covers the three checks to make before you pay to slab anything. Every card in the set is priced in our Destined Rivals value list and the Destined Rivals Set Value Sheet, and this week's movers across all 10 sets are on the Price Movers page.
GradeWorthy is not affiliated with The Pokémon Company, Nintendo, PSA, CGC, TAG, Beckett, eBay or TCGplayer. Prices and fees change; verify before you submit.