Data as of 19 October 2026. Raw price: TCGplayer market price (near-mint) from our daily snapshot, plus PriceCharting's ungraded sold average for comparison. Graded prices: PriceCharting sold listings for this card, accessed 19 October 2026. Fees: PSA and CGC published fee schedules. This is a worked example of a method, not investment advice. Check today's sold prices before you decide.
The short answer
No, not at PSA's current prices, unless you are close to certain of a 10. Raw Milotic ex #237 is $103.63 on TCGplayer (19 October 2026). A PSA 10 sells for about $232 and a PSA 9 for about $105, roughly what a raw copy sells for. With PSA's cheapest open tier at $59.99, a 9 loses money and even a 10 only comes out about +$44 ahead. At a 30% chance of a 10 the average result is about −$34 versus selling raw, and you would need about a 61% chance of a 10 to break even. CGC Economy is cheaper, but a CGC 10 sells for about $105, so it does not pay either.
Milotic ex is the first card in this series that sits under the $150 raw screen we use for PSA Standard (2.5 times the $59.99 fee). This is what that rule of thumb looks like in dollars.
Weekly price changes for 10 modern sets: Pokémon card price movers.
Which PSA tier applies
- PSA Standard ($59.99, cap $1,000) covers every outcome. Raw ($103.63), a PSA 9 (~$105) and a PSA 10 (~$232; 20 PSA 10 sales 8 to 18 October ran $185.00 to $365.00) are far below $1,000, so there is no upcharge.
- PSA's cheaper Value tiers have been paused since 2 June 2026, so $59.99 is the lowest PSA price available. That fee is the whole problem for a card at this price.
- Standard is slow (about 95 business days), so we charge the cost of waiting about 135 calendar days.
The inputs
| Input | Value used | Where it comes from |
|---|---|---|
| Raw price, version A | $103.63 | TCGplayer market, 19 October 2026 (-16.6% vs $124.28 on 13 Sep) |
| Raw price, version B | $94.25 | PriceCharting ungraded sold average (recent raw sales 13 to 17 October: $62.00 to $113.98) |
| Sold price if PSA 10 | $232.50 | PriceCharting PSA 10 average; 20 sales 8 to 18 October: $185.00 to $365.00 (median $232.50) |
| Sold price if PSA 9 | $105.00 | PriceCharting PSA 9 average; 10 PSA 9 sales 2 to 15 October: $86.00 to $115.00 |
| Sold price if 8 or lower | $99.80 | Blend of grade 8 (about $104) and grade 7 (about $92) |
| Chance of a 10 / 9 / 8 or lower | 30% / 50% / 20% | Assumption for a copy that looks clean under a loupe (same as our other card articles). The table below shows other odds |
| Selling platform | eBay, 13.25% + $0.40 | eBay trading-card fee schedule |
| Grading cost | $59.99 + $6.00 shipping and insurance | PSA Standard |
| Time value of money | 5% a year, 135 days | PSA Standard about 95 business days |
The math, PSA Standard
The graded side is the same whichever raw price you use:
- Net if it grades 10: 232.50 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 59.99 − 6 = $135.30
- Net if it grades 9: 105.00 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 59.99 − 6 = $24.70
- Net if 8 or lower: 99.80 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 59.99 − 6 = $20.19
- Expected net if graded: 0.30 × 135.30 + 0.50 × 24.70 + 0.20 × 20.19 = $56.98
Version A, raw = $103.63 (TCGplayer market): net if you sell raw today 103.63 × 0.8675 − 0.40 = $89.50; cost of waiting $1.66; expected gain 56.98 − 89.50 − 1.66 = −$34.
Version B, raw = $94.25 (PriceCharting ungraded): net if you sell raw today 94.25 × 0.8675 − 0.40 = $81.36; cost of waiting $1.50; expected gain 56.98 − 81.36 − 1.50 = −$26.
How much depends on your odds of a 10
| Your chance of a PSA 10 | Raw = $103.63 | Raw = $94.25 |
|---|---|---|
| 20% | −$45 | −$37 |
| 30% | −$34 | −$26 |
| 40% | −$23 | −$15 |
| 50% | −$12 | −$4 |
| 60% | −$1 | +$8 |
| 70% | +$11 | +$19 |
The 9 / 8-or-lower split is kept at 5 : 2 in every row. Break-even is about 61% at the TCGplayer raw price and about 53% at the PriceCharting raw price, well above the 25 to 35% PSA 10 rate usually quoted for modern Special Illustration Rares. If it comes back a 10 you are about $44 ahead (version A); if it does not, you are on average about $68 behind.
Why the fee decides it
A PSA 10 Milotic sells for about $129 more than a raw copy. The $59.99 fee plus shipping takes 51% of that before selling fees, and a PSA 9 (about $105) is worth almost the same as raw, so a 9 nets about $65 less than selling the card raw today. Compare Pikachu ex #238 from the same set, where the 10 is worth hundreds more than raw and the same $59.99 is a small share of the upside. That is the logic behind the $150 screen: below it, PSA's cheapest open tier eats most of what a 10 adds.
When PSA's Value tiers come back (the cheapest was $24.99 before the pause), rerun the numbers: at a $24.99 fee the same inputs give a break-even of about 29% (version A), so a clean copy starts to be worth sending. A 9 would still net less than selling raw.
Why not CGC or TAG?
CGC Economy is only $20, but CGC 10s for this card sold for $96.00 to $139.99 since September (median about $105). A CGC 10 would net about $64.69 after fees and shipping, −$25 versus selling raw at the TCGplayer price. CGC Pristine 10s sold for $245.99 to $351.99 between June and August, but that label is much rarer than a regular 10. TAG 10s have sold for $266.00 to $321.00 since July ($266.00, $273.54 since September), a little above PSA 10s, but TAG's 10 is a stricter grade and we have not modelled TAG's fees here; use the calculator below if you are weighing it.
What would change the answer
- The PSA 10 price. At 30% odds a PSA 10 would need to sell for about $364 (version A) or $332 (version B) for grading to break even. Recent PSA 10 sales: $185.00 to $365.00.
- A cheaper tier. The return of PSA's Value tiers, or a bulk deal through a club or a submission service, changes the answer more than anything about the card.
- The raw price trend. Raw has fallen: $124.28 on 13 September, $119.81 on 1 October, $103.63 today (-16.6%). It is now the #3 card in Surging Sparks behind Pikachu ex and Latias ex.
Do this yourself in two minutes
Our Grading ROI Calculator takes the same inputs, including your own raw price and fee, and puts PSA, CGC, TAG and Beckett side by side. For every card in the set, see the Surging Sparks Set Value Sheet or the free Surging Sparks top 25 list. For which cards across 10 modern sets clear the $150 screen, see How many Pokémon cards are actually worth grading? The same math for other chase cards: Pikachu ex (Surging Sparks), Latias ex (Surging Sparks), Charizard ex (Paldean Fates), Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex (Destined Rivals), Charizard ex (151), Mew ex (Paldean Fates), Umbreon ex (Prismatic Evolutions), Sylveon ex (Prismatic Evolutions), Rayquaza VMAX (Evolving Skies) and Umbreon VMAX (Evolving Skies).
Newer worked examples (October 2026): Mewtwo VSTAR GG44 (Crown Zenith) and Giratina VSTAR GG69 (Crown Zenith).
FAQ
How much is Milotic ex #237 from Surging Sparks worth raw?
About $103.63 near-mint on TCGplayer on 19 October 2026, down from $124.28 on 13 September; PriceCharting's ungraded sold average is $94.25.
How much is a PSA 10 Milotic ex #237?
About $232 on average (PriceCharting, 19 October 2026); 20 sales from 8 to 18 October ran $185.00 to $365.00.
Is a PSA 9 Milotic ex worth more than raw?
About the same. PSA 9s average about $105, so after the $59.99 fee, shipping and selling fees a 9 nets about $65 less than selling raw.
Which PSA tier should I use for Milotic ex #237?
PSA Standard ($59.99, up to $1,000) if you grade it. At today's prices the math says selling raw is better unless you are almost sure of a 10.
What chance of a PSA 10 do I need for grading to pay?
About 61% if your copy would sell raw at the near-mint market price, about 53% if it would sell nearer $94.
GradeWorthy is not affiliated with The Pokémon Company, Nintendo, PSA, CGC, TAG, Beckett, eBay, PriceCharting or TCGplayer. Prices and fees change; verify before you submit.