Updated 2 October 2026. PSA's lineup since 14 September: Standard $59.99 is PSA's cheapest active tier, Regular was renamed Priority ($79.99), and the Value tiers are still paused. Price check: the raw TCGplayer market price was $351.74 on 1 October, down 4.6% from $368.78 on 13 September and about flat since 28 September ($351.28). The worked example below keeps the 13 September inputs so every step can be followed; rerun it with today's sold prices before you decide. How this card compares with the rest of 151 and nine other sets: How many Pokémon cards are actually worth grading? (October 2026).
Data as of 13 September 2026. Raw price is the TCGplayer market price via the pokemontcg.io API. Graded comps below are illustrative inputs; look up the latest eBay sold prices before you decide. This is a worked example of a method, not investment advice.
The short answer
With a raw price of about $369 (13 September 2026) and a clean card, grading Charizard ex #199/165 from Scarlet & Violet 151 pays on expectation at CGC Economy ($20): about +$51. At PSA's cheapest active tier, Standard ($59.99), it is marginal: about +$9. At PSA Priority ($79.99) it loses about $8. The card did not change. The fee did.
Weekly price changes for 10 modern sets: Pokémon card price movers.
Why September 2026 is different
PSA paused every Value tier (Value Bulk $24.99, Value $32.99, Value Plus $49.99, Value Max $64.99) in June 2026 and currently estimates they return around October. Since 14 September the cheapest PSA option for a single card is the new Standard tier at $59.99 ($1,000 maximum declared value, 90 to 100 business days, processed after the existing Value backlog); Priority, formerly Regular, is $79.99 with a 70 to 80 business day turnaround. CGC Economy is $20 with roughly 90 days, CGC Bulk is $17 with a 25-card minimum, and Beckett Base is $14.95.
For a $369 card, the $40 gap between CGC Economy and PSA Standard is 11% of the card's value, and the $60 gap to PSA Priority is 16%. That swing is bigger than the difference between a 9 and a 10 for a lot of mid-value cards.
The inputs
| Input | Value used | Where it comes from |
|---|---|---|
| Raw market price | $368.78 | TCGplayer market price, 13 Sep 2026 |
| Sold price if it grades 10 | $650 (illustrative) | eBay sold listings, median of last 5 to 10 |
| Sold price if it grades 9 | $400 (illustrative) | eBay sold listings |
| Sold price if 8 or lower | $330 (illustrative) | eBay sold listings |
| Chance of a 10 / 9 / 8 or lower | 30% / 50% / 20% | SIR gem rates run 25 to 35% in 2026 pop data; we assumed a clean card under a loupe |
| Selling platform | eBay, 13.25% + $0.40 | eBay trading-card fee schedule |
| Shipping and insurance | $25 split across 5 cards = $5 | Typical insured round trip |
| Time value of money | 5% a year | Your choice; set to 0 to ignore |
The math, CGC Economy
- Net if you sell raw today: 368.78 × (1 − 0.1325) − 0.40 = $319.52
- Total grading cost per card: $20 fee + $5 shipping share = $25
- Net if it grades 10: 650 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 25 = $538.48
- Net if it grades 9: 400 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 25 = $321.60
- Net if 8 or lower: 330 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 25 = $260.88
- Expected net if graded: 0.30 × 538.48 + 0.50 × 321.60 + 0.20 × 260.88 = $374.52
- Cost of waiting 90 days: 319.52 × 5% × 90/365 = $3.94
- Expected gain versus selling raw: 374.52 − 319.52 − 3.94 = +$51.06, about 13.8% of the raw price
Notice that a 9 already roughly matches selling raw. That is why the break-even chance of a 10 is so low here: only about 8%. Even if your honest estimate is a quarter of the population-report gem rate, CGC Economy still pays on expectation.
The math, PSA Standard and PSA Priority
PSA Standard ($59.99): total grading cost per card $64.99. Expected net if graded: 0.30 × 498.48 + 0.50 × 281.61 + 0.20 × 220.89 = $334.53. Waiting about 133 calendar days (95 business days) costs 319.52 × 5% × 133/365 = $5.82. Expected gain: 334.53 − 319.52 − 5.82 = +$9.19, about 2.5% of the raw price. Positive, but small enough that a slightly worse 10 rate or a softer PSA 10 comp wipes it out, so treat it as marginal.
PSA Priority ($79.99, formerly Regular): total grading cost per card $84.99. Expected net if graded drops to $314.53, below the $319.52 you would get selling raw today. Expected gain over 90 days: about −$8.27. The verdict is sell raw at this tier, or use Standard or CGC, or hold the card raw until PSA's Value tiers return.
What would change the answer
- Graded comps. If PSA 10 copies are really selling for $800 rather than $650, PSA Priority becomes positive and PSA Standard clearly positive. Always use the freshest sold prices, not asking prices.
- Condition. Special Illustration Rares show edge and surface flaws easily. Check centering with a ruler and tilt the holo under a bright light. A visible scratch takes P(10) from 30% toward 3%, and at that point nothing pays.
- Platform. Selling a graded card at a show for cash removes the 13.25% fee on both sides of the comparison and changes the numbers less than people expect, because it helps the raw sale too.
Do this yourself in two minutes
Our Grading ROI Calculator ships with exactly this example pre-filled and every fee above editable. Change the comps to today's sold prices, set your own odds, and read the verdict. If you want the price of every card in 151 first, the 151 Set Value Sheet has all 207 with a grade-worthy shortlist, and a free 3-page preview.
The same math for other chase cards (October 2026), each with recent PSA 9 and PSA 10 sold prices instead of the illustrative comps above: Umbreon ex (Prismatic Evolutions #161) · Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex (Destined Rivals #231) · Mew ex (Paldean Fates #232) · Pikachu ex (Surging Sparks #238) · Umbreon VMAX (Evolving Skies #215) · Charizard ex (Paldean Fates #234) · Rayquaza VMAX (Evolving Skies #218) · Latias ex (Surging Sparks #239).
Newer worked examples (October 2026): Milotic ex (Surging Sparks), Sylveon ex (Prismatic Evolutions), Mewtwo VSTAR GG44 (Crown Zenith) and Giratina VSTAR GG69 (Crown Zenith).
GradeWorthy is not affiliated with The Pokémon Company, Nintendo, PSA, CGC, TAG, Beckett, eBay or TCGplayer. Prices and fees change; verify before you submit.