Data as of 13 September 2026. Raw price is the TCGplayer market price via the pokemontcg.io API. Graded comps below are illustrative inputs; look up the latest eBay sold prices before you decide. This is a worked example of a method, not investment advice.
The short answer
At today's raw market price of about $369, grading Charizard ex #199/165 from Scarlet & Violet 151 pays on expectation if you use CGC Economy ($20) and your card is clean. The same card sent to PSA at its cheapest active tier, Regular at $79.99, loses money on expectation. The card did not change. The fee did.
Why September 2026 is different
PSA paused every Value tier (Value Bulk $24.99, Value $32.99, Value Plus $49.99, Value Max $64.99) in June 2026 and currently estimates they return around October. Until then the cheapest PSA option for a single card is Regular at $79.99 with a 70 to 80 business day turnaround. CGC Economy is $20 with roughly 90 days, CGC Bulk is $17 with a 25-card minimum, and Beckett Base is $14.95.
For a $369 card, a $60 difference in fee is 16% of the card's value. That swing is bigger than the difference between a 9 and a 10 for a lot of mid-value cards.
The inputs
| Input | Value used | Where it comes from |
|---|---|---|
| Raw market price | $368.78 | TCGplayer market price, 13 Sep 2026 |
| Sold price if it grades 10 | $650 (illustrative) | eBay sold listings, median of last 5 to 10 |
| Sold price if it grades 9 | $400 (illustrative) | eBay sold listings |
| Sold price if 8 or lower | $330 (illustrative) | eBay sold listings |
| Chance of a 10 / 9 / 8 or lower | 30% / 50% / 20% | SIR gem rates run 25 to 35% in 2026 pop data; we assumed a clean card under a loupe |
| Selling platform | eBay, 13.25% + $0.40 | eBay trading-card fee schedule |
| Shipping and insurance | $25 split across 5 cards = $5 | Typical insured round trip |
| Time value of money | 5% a year | Your choice; set to 0 to ignore |
The math, CGC Economy
- Net if you sell raw today: 368.78 × (1 − 0.1325) − 0.40 = $319.52
- Total grading cost per card: $20 fee + $5 shipping share = $25
- Net if it grades 10: 650 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 25 = $538.48
- Net if it grades 9: 400 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 25 = $321.60
- Net if 8 or lower: 330 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 25 = $260.88
- Expected net if graded: 0.30 × 538.48 + 0.50 × 321.60 + 0.20 × 260.88 = $374.52
- Cost of waiting 90 days: 319.52 × 5% × 90/365 = $3.94
- Expected gain versus selling raw: 374.52 − 319.52 − 3.94 = +$51.06, about 13.8% of the raw price
Notice that a 9 already roughly matches selling raw. That is why the break-even chance of a 10 is so low here: only about 8%. Even if your honest estimate is a quarter of the population-report gem rate, CGC Economy still pays on expectation.
The math, PSA Regular
Swap the $20 fee for $79.99. Total grading cost per card becomes $84.99. Expected net if graded drops to $314.53, which is below the $319.52 you would get selling raw today. Expected gain: about −$8.27. The verdict flips to sell raw, or hold the card raw until PSA's Value tiers return.
What would change the answer
- Graded comps. If PSA 10 copies are really selling for $800 rather than $650, PSA Regular becomes positive again. Always use the freshest sold prices, not asking prices.
- Condition. Special Illustration Rares show edge and surface flaws easily. Check centering with a ruler and tilt the holo under a bright light. A visible scratch takes P(10) from 30% toward 3%, and at that point nothing pays.
- Platform. Selling a graded card at a show for cash removes the 13.25% fee on both sides of the comparison and changes the numbers less than people expect, because it helps the raw sale too.
Do this yourself in two minutes
Our Grading ROI Calculator ships with exactly this example pre-filled and every fee above editable. Change the comps to today's sold prices, set your own odds, and read the verdict. If you want the price of every card in 151 first, the 151 Set Value Sheet has all 207 with a grade-worthy shortlist, and a free 3-page preview.
GradeWorthy is not affiliated with The Pokémon Company, Nintendo, PSA, CGC, TAG, Beckett, eBay or TCGplayer. Prices and fees change; verify before you submit.