Data as of 3 October 2026. Raw price: TCGplayer market price (near-mint, holofoil) from our daily snapshot. Graded prices: PriceCharting sold listings for this card, accessed 3 October 2026. Fees: PSA and CGC published fee schedules. This is a worked example of a method, not investment advice. Check today's sold prices before you decide.
The short answer
For a clean copy, yes, on expectation, but only because of the PSA 10. With raw Umbreon ex #161 at $1,326.66 (3 October 2026), grading at PSA comes out about +$663 ahead of selling raw if you assume a 30% chance of a 10. A PSA 9 (about $1,150) sells for less than raw once fees come out, so this is a 10-or-nothing bet. If the card does not get a 10, you end up about $280 behind selling raw. The break-even chance of a 10 is about 9%.
Weekly price changes for 10 modern sets: Pokémon card price movers.
Why the cheap tiers don't apply to this card
Both PSA and CGC price grading by the card's value, and both move a card up a tier, and bill the difference, when it is worth more after grading than the tier allows. For Umbreon ex that rules out the cheap tiers:
- PSA Standard ($59.99) has a $1,000 cap. Raw is already $1,326.66, so it doesn't qualify.
- PSA Priority ($79.99, cap $1,500) covers a 9 or an 8 at today's prices. That's the tier to declare.
- If it comes back a PSA 10 (about $5,399), that value is above Express's $2,500 cap and above Super Express's $5,000 cap ($349) as well, so PSA moves it to Premier ($599, cap $10,000), the first tier whose cap covers it. You pay a $519.01 upcharge, and only when you get the 10.
- CGC Economy ($20) is capped at $1,000 too. A CGC submission would start at CGC Standard ($55, cap $3,000), and a top grade would move to CGC Express ($100, cap $10,000). We don't have enough CGC 10 sales for this card to do that math, and a CGC 10 usually sells for well below a PSA 10. So this article works through PSA.
The inputs
| Input | Value used | Where it comes from |
|---|---|---|
| Raw market price | $1,326.66 | TCGplayer market, 3 October 2026 (-5.9% vs $1,410.28 on 16 Sep) |
| Sold price if PSA 10 | $5,399.00 | PriceCharting: three PSA 10 sales on 1 Oct at $5,050, $5,399 and $5,400 (median) |
| Sold price if PSA 9 | $1,150.00 | PriceCharting: PSA 9 sales of $1,085 (1 Oct) and $1,225 (29 Sep) |
| Sold price if 8 or lower | $1,000.00 | Blend of PSA 8 (about $1,075, three sales mid-Sep) and grade 7 (about $884) |
| Chance of a 10 / 9 / 8 or lower | 30% / 50% / 20% | Prismatic Evolutions runs about a 32% PSA 10 rate set-wide; we assume a copy that looks clean under a loupe |
| Selling platform | eBay, 13.25% + $0.40 | eBay trading-card fee schedule |
| Shipping and insurance | $15.00 per card | Insured round trip for a $1,000+ card, split across a small submission |
| Time value of money | 5% a year, 105 days | PSA Priority 70 to 80 business days |
The math, PSA Priority with the Premier upcharge
- Net if you sell raw today: 1,326.66 × 0.8675 − 0.40 = $1,150.48
- Net if it grades 10: 5,399 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − $599 Premier − 15 shipping = $4,069.23
- Net if it grades 9: 1,150 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − $79.99 − 15 = $902.23
- Net if 8 or lower: 1,000 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − $79.99 − 15 = $792.11
- Expected net if graded: 0.30 × 4,069.23 + 0.50 × 902.23 + 0.20 × 792.11 = $1,830.31
- Cost of waiting 105 days: 1,150.48 × 5% × 105/365 = $16.55
- Expected gain versus selling raw: 1,830.31 − 1,150.48 − 16.55 = +$663.28
Read the result carefully
The expected gain is large because a PSA 10 sells for about four times raw. But it is an average over outcomes you only get once. Seven times out of ten (at our assumed odds), you get a 9 or lower, and you are about $280 worse off than if you had sold raw. Most of that comes from a PSA 9 selling below raw: today's 9s ($1,085 to $1,225) are close to the raw price, and the 9 also carries grading fees and selling fees.
The break-even chance of a 10 is about 9%. If your honest estimate for your own copy is above that, grading pays on expectation. If the card has visible whitening, a print line or centering worse than about 60/40, your odds can drop well below that, and selling raw is the better choice.
What would change the answer
- The PSA 10 price. It has held at $5,000 to $5,800 over the last month while raw drifted down from $1,410.28 to $1,326.66. If PSA 10s fell toward $3,000, the gain would shrink sharply. Use the latest sold prices, not asking prices.
- PSA's tier caps. If raw climbs back above $1,500, a 9 would need Express ($199), and the 9 and 8 outcomes get worse.
- Your risk tolerance. A 70% chance of losing about $280 is a real risk even when the average is positive. If you need the money, selling raw is the sure thing.
Do this yourself in two minutes
Our Grading ROI Calculator takes the same inputs. Set the PSA 10 fee to the Premier tier and the 9 and 8 fees to Priority to reproduce the upcharge case above. For the price of every card in the set, see the Prismatic Evolutions Set Value Sheet. For which cards across 10 modern sets clear the grading line this month, see How many Pokémon cards are actually worth grading?
The same math for other chase cards (October 2026): Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex (Destined Rivals #231) · Mew ex (Paldean Fates #232) · Charizard ex (151 #199) · Pikachu ex (Surging Sparks #238) · Umbreon VMAX (Evolving Skies #215) · Charizard ex (Paldean Fates #234) · Rayquaza VMAX (Evolving Skies #218) · Latias ex (Surging Sparks #239) · Sylveon ex (Prismatic Evolutions #156) · Leafeon ex (Prismatic Evolutions #144).
Newer worked examples (October 2026): Milotic ex (Surging Sparks), Mewtwo VSTAR GG44 (Crown Zenith) and Giratina VSTAR GG69 (Crown Zenith).
FAQ
How much is Umbreon ex #161 from Prismatic Evolutions worth raw?
About $1,326.66 near-mint on TCGplayer on 3 October 2026, down from $1,410.28 on 16 September.
How much is a PSA 10 Umbreon ex #161?
Recent PSA 10 sales on 1 October 2026 were $5,050 to $5,400 (PriceCharting).
Which PSA tier should I use for Umbreon ex?
Declare it at Priority ($79.99, up to $1,500). Standard's $1,000 cap is below the raw price. If it grades 10, PSA moves it to Premier ($599) and bills the difference.
Is a PSA 9 Umbreon ex worth more than raw?
Not by enough to cover the costs. Recent PSA 9 sales of $1,085 to $1,225 are close to the raw price, and after grading and selling fees a 9 nets less than selling raw.
GradeWorthy is not affiliated with The Pokémon Company, Nintendo, PSA, CGC, TAG, Beckett, eBay or TCGplayer. Prices and fees change; verify before you submit.