Data as of 24 October 2026. Raw price: TCGplayer market price (near-mint) from our daily snapshot, plus PriceCharting's ungraded sold average for comparison. Graded prices: PriceCharting sold listings for this card, accessed 24 October 2026. Fees: PSA and CGC published fee schedules. This is a worked example of a method, not investment advice. Check today's sold prices before you decide.
The short answer
Not at typical odds. A PSA 10 is worth only about 1.9 times raw, and a PSA 9 sells for less than raw. Raw Arceus VSTAR GG70 is $180.27 on TCGplayer (24 October 2026), 15% below the $211.40 we recorded on 18 September. A PSA 10 sells for about $349 and a PSA 9 for about $178. At PSA Standard ($59.99) a 10 puts you about +$77 ahead of selling raw today, but anything less leaves you about −$82. At a 30% chance of a 10 the average result is about −$34; break-even is about a 51% chance of a 10.
Arceus is the #3 card in Crown Zenith, behind Giratina VSTAR GG69 and Mewtwo VSTAR GG44, and all three Galarian Gallery cards fail the full math for the same reason: PSA 8s and 9s sell for about the raw price or less, so only a 10 adds anything. Arceus fails by the widest margin of the three because its PSA 10 premium is the smallest, about $168 over raw. It still clears our $150 raw screen, which is why the screen is only a first filter. Compare Sylveon ex: its PSA 9 is also worth about raw, but its 10 is worth about three times raw, so break-even there is 13%.
Weekly price changes for 10 modern sets: Pokémon card price movers.
Which PSA tier applies
- PSA Standard ($59.99, cap $1,000). Raw ($180.27), a PSA 9 (~$178) and a PSA 10 (~$349) all sit under $1,000. 22 PSA 10 sales from 12 October to 24 October ran $315.00 to $419.99, so no upcharge applies.
- PSA's cheaper Value tiers have been paused since 2 June 2026. PSA ties their return to its backlog falling to about 5 million cards; it reported 8.2 million on 6 October. Standard takes about 90 to 100 business days, so we charge 135 calendar days of waiting.
The inputs
| Input | Value used | Where it comes from |
|---|---|---|
| Raw price, version A | $180.27 | TCGplayer market, 24 October 2026 (-14.7% vs $211.40 on 18 Sep; $204.00 on 1 Oct; $191.22 on 13 Oct) |
| Raw price, version B | $184.82 | PriceCharting ungraded sold average (23 raw sales 2 October to 22 October: $120.43 to $253.20, median $169.98) |
| Sold price if PSA 10 | $348.68 | PriceCharting PSA 10 average; 22 sales, median $340.00 |
| Sold price if PSA 9 | $177.50 | Median of 23 PriceCharting PSA 9 sales 20 September to 24 October: $138.50 to $214.99 |
| Sold price if 8 or lower | $136.17 | Blend of grade 8 (about $154; 3 PSA 8 sales since August, median $177.50) and grade 7 (about $100) |
| Chance of a 10 / 9 / 8 or lower | 30% / 50% / 20% | Assumption for a copy that looks clean under a loupe (same as our other card articles); other odds below |
| Selling platform | eBay, 13.25% + $0.40 | eBay trading-card fee schedule |
| Grading cost | $59.99 + $6 shipping | PSA Standard |
| Time value of money | 5% a year, 135 days | PSA Standard turnaround |
The math
- Net if it grades 10: 348.68 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 59.99 − 6 = $236.09
- Net if it grades 9: 177.50 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 59.99 − 6 = $87.59
- Net if 8 or lower: 136.17 × 0.8675 − 0.40 − 59.99 − 6 = $51.74
- Expected net if graded: 0.30 × 236.09 + 0.50 × 87.59 + 0.20 × 51.74 = $124.97
Version A, raw = $180.27: sell raw today 180.27 × 0.8675 − 0.40 = $155.98; cost of waiting $2.88; expected gain 124.97 − 155.98 − 2.88 = −$34.
Version B, raw = $184.82: sell raw today $159.93; cost of waiting $2.96; expected gain −$38.
How much depends on your odds of a 10
| Your chance of a PSA 10 | Raw = $180.27 | Raw = $184.82 |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | −$66 | −$70 |
| 20% | −$50 | −$54 |
| 30% | −$34 | −$38 |
| 40% | −$18 | −$22 |
| 50% | −$2 | −$6 |
| 60% | +$14 | +$10 |
The 9 / 8-or-lower split is kept at 5 : 2 in every row. Break-even is about 51% (version A) and 54% (version B), above the top of the 25 to 35% PSA 10 rate usually quoted for modern full-art cards. Only a copy you would bet is a 10 (sharp corners, clean back, centering you have measured) gets into positive territory.
Why a $180 card can fail the math
The fee is the same $59.99 on every card under $1,000, so what decides it is the gap between raw and the slab. Here a PSA 10 adds about $168 over raw, and a PSA 9 is worth about $3 less than raw, so seven times in ten (at 30% odds) you pay to turn a $180 card into a slab that sells for less. For grading to pay at 30% odds, a PSA 10 would need to sell for about $479 (version A).
Even PSA's Value Bulk tier, if it returns at its pre-pause $24.99, would only bring this card to about +$1 at 30% odds (break-even about 29%). At that fee a clean copy becomes a coin flip rather than a loss; the small PSA 10 premium is the real limit.
What about CGC, TAG or ACE?
CGC Economy is only $20. CGC 10s for this card sold for $207.50 to $247.50 since September (median about $225 across 8 sales since August). A CGC 10 would net about $168.79 after fees and shipping, +$13 versus selling raw at the TCGplayer price, but only if it comes back a 10: CGC 9s usually sell below PSA 9s, which here are already under raw, so at the same 30% odds CGC does not change the answer. CGC Pristine 10s sold for $340.00 to $449.00 since August, but that label is much rarer than a regular 10.
TAG is the one slab that sells above a PSA 10 here: 4 TAG 10 sales since August ran $430.00 to $560.00. Two cautions: 4 sales is a thin record, and TAG's 10 is a stricter grade than PSA's, so the odds of getting one are lower than the 30% we assume for PSA. ACE 10s have sold for $157.50 to $274.62 since August, under the ~$349 a PSA 10 brings. We have not modelled TAG's or ACE's fees here; use the calculator below if you are weighing them.
Do this yourself in two minutes
Our Grading ROI Calculator takes the same inputs, including your own raw price, odds and fee, and puts PSA, CGC, TAG and Beckett side by side. For every card in the set, including the Galarian Gallery, see the Crown Zenith Set Value Sheet or the free Crown Zenith top 25 list. Cards where the math says no for the same reason: Giratina VSTAR GG69 (Crown Zenith), Mewtwo VSTAR GG44 (Crown Zenith) and Milotic ex (Surging Sparks). Other chase cards: Sylveon ex (Prismatic Evolutions), Latias ex (Surging Sparks), Pikachu ex (Surging Sparks), Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex (Destined Rivals), Charizard ex (Paldean Fates), Mew ex (Paldean Fates), Charizard ex (151), Umbreon ex (Prismatic Evolutions), Rayquaza VMAX (Evolving Skies) and Umbreon VMAX (Evolving Skies).
FAQ
How much is Arceus VSTAR GG70 from Crown Zenith worth raw?
About $180.27 near-mint on TCGplayer on 24 October 2026 ($191.22 on 13 October, $211.40 on 18 September); PriceCharting's ungraded sold average is $184.82.
How much is a PSA 10 Arceus VSTAR GG70?
About $349 on average (PriceCharting, 24 October 2026); 22 sales from 12 October to 24 October ran $315.00 to $419.99.
Is a PSA 9 Arceus VSTAR GG70 worth more than raw?
No. Recent PSA 9 sales have a median of about $178, under the raw price, so after fees a 9 nets about $71 less than selling raw today.
Which PSA tier should I use?
PSA Standard ($59.99). Raw, 9 and 10 prices are all under its $1,000 cap.
What chance of a PSA 10 do I need?
About 51% at the TCGplayer raw price, about 54% at PriceCharting's raw average.
GradeWorthy is not affiliated with The Pokémon Company, Nintendo, PSA, CGC, TAG, Beckett, ACE, eBay, PriceCharting or TCGplayer. Prices and fees change; verify before you submit.